CPA Weekly Notes – 17th April 2025

Issue No. 1146, 17th April 2025 FOR MEMBERS ONLY

Association Activities

CPA Webinar: U.S. Tariff Disruption, Uncertainty and the CPA Construction Forecasts (11am, 30 April)
U.S. tariff disruption has increased uncertainty and made market forecasting even more difficult than during Covid-19 Pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis. This webinar – hosted by the CPA Economics Director, Professor Noble Francis – focuses on the potential impacts for the U.K. economy and construction sector. The webinar will be from 11.00 – 12.00 on Wednesday, 30 April via Zoom, and will include time for Q&A. Click here to register.

CPA Spring Lunch 2025 – 1 May
Bookings have now closed for the CPA Spring Lunch. We appreciate your support and look forward to seeing you!

you!

CPA Weekly UK Economic and Construction Update

The latest weekly update is available here, including:

ONS UK CPI Inflation (March 2025)
ONS UK Construction Wage Inflation (February 2025)

The CPA’s Spring Forecasts will be published on Monday, 28 April. Also note that the ONS has suspended its monthly UK building materials price data (and other producer price data) due to concerns about its reliability, which the CPA has been highlighting since the impacts of the energy and price spikes in Spring 2022.

CPA Briefing Paper: The Impacts of U.S. Tariffs
Following strong demand from members and government alike, the CPA’s economics team has published a briefing paper on the ‘Impacts of U.S. Tariffs’. This document will be revised as the situation develops, and made available to CPA members every Friday with our Weekly UK Economic and Construction Update. To receive this document via email every Friday please contact noble.francis@constructionproducts.org.uk ; alternatively, you can click here to read it now.

Today’s version includes, on Page 2, the results of an investment bank polling its key stakeholders on the probability of a U.S. recession (in the light of no hard data or surveys covering the period since the U.S. tariff disruption as yet). The new text is highlighted in yellow.

Weekly Calendar of Meetings

Hanna Clarke, Digital and Policy Manager, will have a variety of meetings with industry colleagues and civil servants around competence.

Peter Caplehorn, CPA Chief Executive, will meet with directors at the MHCLG, OPSS and Building Safety Regulator to discuss product issues; will present about the government Green Paper at the Forum for the Built Environment hosted by Addleshaw Goddard LLP; and will attend the weekly meeting of the Construction Leadership Council’s Task Force.

Mark Wilkinson, Senior Technical Manager, will attend a meeting and reception with Timber Development UK and the Quebec Assembly Economic Minister.

Economic Update

Economy

According to the ONS, the annual CPI inflation rate was 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February. The largest downward contribution to the slowing in the annual rate came from recreation and motor fuels. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to March 2024, down from 3.5% in February. Annual services inflation which is closely watched by the Bank of England, slowed from 5.0% to 4.7%.
According to the ONS, the UK employment rate was estimated at 75.1% in the period December 2024 to February 2025. This was up from 74.9% in the previous three-month period and 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, the UK unemployment rate was estimated at 4.4% in the three months to February, the same as three months earlier but up slightly from 4.2% a year earlier. The labour force statistics are official statistics in development and the ONS advises caution when using the data as estimates have been affected by increased volatility resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes post-pandemic.
Average weekly earnings across the whole economy increased 5.6% year-on-year (including bonuses) in the three months to February, unchanged from the rate recorded three months earlier, according to the ONS. Excluding bonuses, average weekly earnings rose 5.9%. Looking at the industry sectors in the three months to February, total earnings in manufacturing rose 5.6% compared with the same period a year earlier, whilst total earnings in construction rose 6.1%, representing the highest sectoral growth rate for the period. After adjusting for CPI inflation, average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain rose 2.8% for total pay and 3.0% excluding bonuses in the three months to February, compared with a year earlier.
According to the BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor, total UK retail sales increased by 1.1% year-on-year in March, against a growth of 3.5% in March 2024. Food sales increased by 1.6% year, whilst non-Food sales increased by 0.6%. Last year Easter was in March, which will distort the year-on-year sales comparisons given that Easter is in mid-April this year.

Housing

Data from the ONS and Land Registry show that UK house prices were flat year-on-year in February, but were 5.4% higher than a year earlier. By nation, Scotland reported annual house price growth of 5.7%, with a rise of 5.3% in England and 4.1% in Wales. At an English regional level, growth rates ranged from 8.0% in the North West and 7.9% in the North East, to 1.7% in London. Overall, the average UK house price in February was £268,000. The lowest was £160,452 in the North East and the highest was £555,625 in London.

For further information contact rebecca.larkin@constructionproducts.org.uk

Parliamentary and Government Update

Recess
Parliament will be in recess from the 8th of April 2025 and returns on the 22nd of April 2025.

Government Survey re Tariff Impact
The CPA has been contacted by the Department for Business and Trade to share this request (below). Please cascade this for response from your organisation or members. Note that the link for providing feedback is directly to the Government:

On 2 April President Trump announced universal 10% tariffs on top of existing US duties, fees and taxes on all imports from all trading countries, including the UK. This will come into effect (on 5 April). The new 10% tariffs announced on 2 April will not apply to US imports of steel, aluminium and automotive products, which are already subject to additional S232 tariffs of 25%.
As the Business Secretary and PM said on 3 April, it is of course disappointing that the US has decided to impose global tariffs and we know this will be extremely concerning for businesses and consumers across the UK. A link to the Statement made by the Secretary of State is here.

Request For Input

To enable the UK to have every option open to us in the future, the Department has launched a Request for Input. We want to hear from business and stakeholders about your concerns and your assessment of the impact of any further steps we take and want UK businesses to help shape our response to US tariffs. Further information on the Request for Input and an indicative list of potential products in scope of any future UK tariff response can be found here. You can also find the press release on the Request for Input here.

The Request for Input will run for four weeks until 1 May 2025. Once the Request for Input closes, the Government will reflect on the feedback and consider how best to respond.
The Government will continue to engage with the US Administration on the details of these tariffs, to understand how they will be implemented. The UK will continue discussions with the US on an economic deal that strengthens our existing fair and balanced trading relationship.

Industry News

BSI Built Environment Summit 2025 – 30 April 2025 | 09:30 – 17:00 BST
The BSI is hosting an interactive online event that brings together professionals, innovators, and thought leaders to address the challenges and opportunities of our rapidly evolving built environment sector.
This is a cross divisional event with experts from all parts of the BSI business as well as external speakers, and will be hosted on line. The agenda highlights include:

Insights from industry leaders: Learn about advancements in BIM, AI, and sustainability.
Interactive sessions: Engage directly with speakers through Q&A and panel discussions.
Networking opportunities: Connect with peers and explore virtual exhibitions.

To learn more or book your virtual seat, click here.

April’s Construction Industry Snapshot
Barbour ABI’s Construction Industry Monthly Snapshot covers contract awards, planning approvals, and applications by sector, featuring expert commentary and detailed data visualisations.
The main highlights from April’s edition are:
• Contract awards dip again from a strong start to the year and now sit below the 2024 average at £6bn.
• Overall planning approval value levelled off in March at £8.6bn after a decline last month from a particularly strong January and December.
• The overall value of planning applications changed little from January rising just 2% to £8.8bn.
Accessible anytime, the Construction Industry Monthly Snapshot offers a seamless and interactive experience – keeping you closely connected to the insights that matter most.
View April’s Construction Industry Snapshot here.

Are You Ready to Enrol in the Siderise Academy?
With competency under the spotlight, it is important that all construction professionals have easy access to high quality, educational opportunities. Siderise Academy has launched a new, online learning platform designed to help the industry build its understanding of passive fire protection and acoustics in the built environment. Featuring RIBA-certified CPDs and modules developed under the ASFP recognised provider scheme, it can support the creation of safe, comfortable and compliant buildings designed to last. Created by technical experts at the global manufacturer of high-performance passive fire protection, acoustic and insulation solutions, the Siderise Academy online platform offers a range of on-demand courses, webinars and CPD modules that are accessible on any device with an internet connection. These are supported with reading materials and interactive assessments designed to test your knowledge and reinforce your learning. The content aligns with high industry standards and can be used as part of a competency pathway. Once a course or webinar is completed, users can download a certificate of completion, enabling them to document their learning and provide evidence that they are taking steps to maintain their competence through continuous learning and development. Elan Penn, Training Manager at Siderise, spoke of the significance of the new platform: “Launching the Siderise Academy online platform marks a key milestone in our mission to ‘Go Beyond, contributing to safer buildings.’ Both passive fire protection and acoustics are incredibly complex areas of construction, and it is important that industry professionals have the right knowledge to ensure the approaches and solutions they are using are best practice for their projects, supporting both safety and regulatory compliance. Through this platform, we hope to better share the knowledge and experience of our technical experts, with even more valuable courses and modules set to be released over the coming year.”

CPA in the News

UK steel market: importers to brace themselves
There is good news for overseas long steel producers too. The Construction Products Association (CPA) expects construction volumes to grow by 2.1% this year and 4% in 2026. The driver will be the private housing sector. Here, volumes will increase by 6% in 2025 and 8% in 2026. This will be ensured by the inflow of private investment. They will increase by 3% in 2025 and by 4% in 2026.
GMK | 11/04/2025 | Online

Labour MP calls for ‘fiercely vigilant’ approach to foreign investment in UK infrastructure
Rebecca Larkin, head of research at the Construction Products Association, told Construction News the steel plant crisis “highlights the quandary of funding large capital investments, particularly infrastructure”. “Private finance, whether it is from a domestic company or a foreign state, will primarily be seeking a financial return and low risk,” she added. “Direct funding on the government books is aiming to drive long-term economic growth and employment.”
Construction News | 16/04/2025 | Online

Thames Water claims cost of sewage works repairs has risen 10-fold since 2021
The Construction Products Association estimates that infrastructure construction costs have risen by 22.3 per cent from the start of 2021 to the end of 2024, due to double-digit increases in both skilled labour and building material prices.
FT | 17 April 2025 | Online (via subscription)